Demand side
Domestic demand remains strong in the fourth quarter of 2020, and overseas demand has already picked up: Take Boulder Egypt as an example, inventories have fallen to about two weeks, and US inventories are also trending downward. Driven by the certainty of the recovery of automobile, electronic appliances and overseas demand, the demand for glass fiber in 2021 is likely to be better than in 2020.
Supply side
The increase in supply in 2021 will be between 500,000 and 600,000 tons (Chongqing International’s production lines with annual production capacity of 88,000 and 45,000 tons in the second quarter will be put into operation, respectively, as incremental information), compared with over 1 million in 2018~2019 The release of production capacity per ton is still limited.
Price side
In the fourth quarter of 2020, the price of roving and products will continue to increase structurally (such as thermoplastic yarn, which will increase by 200-500 yuan/ton in the off-season in early January). There is still a full-scale price increase expectation in 2021, and there is a high probability that prices will hit a record high event.
Electronic cloth
At the current time, the mainstream price of 7628 cloth has reached 5.3~5.5 yuan/meter. Enterprises are generally optimistic about the price outlook of electronic cloth in 2021. Jushi believes that 2021 is expected to rise throughout the year, and the price increase in the first half of 2021 will be large. Probability, there is uncertainty in the second half of the year, but the guideline that the average price of the second quarter exceeds 7 yuan/meter is given, which exceeds market expectations.
Overall, the off-season price increase of glass fiber roving and electronic cloth has exceeded market expectations, and looking forward to 2021, it is believed that the path of glass fiber price increase is expected to continue.
